the season around for new york against houston? it's way too early for this. >> good morning, i'm willie geist. this is "way too early," the show that's looking to turn their season around this morning. i'm glad you're up with us watching on msnbc or listening live on radio. you can e-us as always on msnbc.com or tweet me at willie geist or do what arian faster does and text awake followed by a response to 622639. we'll read the best responses later in the show. the next 30 minutes will be your cram session for this tuesday, october 9th. a lot going on including the imf warning of a dip back into another global recession. we'll have a live report from london. plus, the obama campaign is getting a lot of mileage out of big bird. we'll show you their video from

sesame street. first, let's get to the news live at 5:30 a.m. here at 30 rock. we begin with the race for the white house. new post debate polling shows the race tightening now with four weeks to go. a new pugh research center survey showing mitt romney leading president obama 49-45 in a national head-to-head matchup. that's among likely voters, people who are most committed to participating in the november 6 election. but gallup has a different result in the daily tracking report. according to the seven-day rolling average, the president leads mitt romney 50 to 45. that is among registered voters. good news for the romney campaign in the state of michigan meanwhile. president obama was leading by ten points last month. according to the detroit free press, after the debate, same poll has the president's lead down to three points. that is within the margin of error. perhaps the biggest gain for the romney campaign comes from that pugh survey which shows republican candidate making huge

gains with women voters. he's now tied with the president according to pugh. 47-47. just a month ago, the president had an 18-point lead in this poll among women voters. today mr. romney rallies voters in iowa a day after delivering what his campaign called a major foreign policy address. speaking to an audience of cadets at the virginia military institute, romney hit on a wide range of hot button issues in the muslim world from the war in syria and the obama administration shifting response to the deadly attack on the nebs b -- the embassy in benghazi. republican candidate suggesting he would take a harder line to make sure that tehran does not get a nuclear weapon. >> i'll put the leaders of iran on notice that the united states and our friends and allies will prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

i'll not hesitate to impose new sanctions on iran and will tighten the sanctions we currently have. i'll restore the permanent presence of air cast carrier task forces in the eastern mediterranean and the gulf. i'll work with israel to increase our military assistance and coordination for the sake of peace we must make clear to iran through actions, not just words, that their nuclear pursuit will not be tolerated. >> despite his criticism that president obama has not slowed iran's nuclear ambition, mr. romney's plan isn't a lot different from that of the presidents. you can see here. the current administration has increased sanctions along with the western rorld and vowed to prevent iran from getting atomic weapons. there are also a few differences between the candidates when it comes to cooperation with israel. and the drawdown of u.s. forces from afghanistan. on the middle east peace process, romney sounded decidedly more optimistic than he did earlier this year during that secretly recorded private

fund-raiser. >> i'll recommit america to the goal of a democratic prosperous palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with the jewish state of israel. >> i don't think the palestinians want to seek this yaen way for political purposes. these are the issues that i say there is just no way. you move thing as long the best way you can. you hope for some stability and you roy that it's going to remain until -- we look at taiwan. we have a potentially volatile situation and we live it with. we kick the ball down the field and hopefully somehow something will happen. >> the obama campaign was quick in its response to romney's speech at vmi. madelieine albright slammed the republican candidate during a conference call with reporters saying romney's foreign policy is full of platitudes but short

on specifics. staying with foreign policy, we're learning more about the security situation in libya leading up to the deadly attack on the u.s. consulate. chairman of the house oversight committee is expected to hold hearings tomorrow now after an e-mail from the u.s. embassy in libya to the state department shows that it had requested a special security team stay in libya for another four months. the senior state department official tells the associated press that request was granted but a commander on that security team report eed will testify th chris stevens who was killed during the attack wanted the security time to stay even longer. that request was turned down. the state department says the 16 member security team was based in tripoli and would not have made a difference at the time of the attack in benghazi. the president's top counter-terrorism official expected to arrive in libya today to make his own assessment of what happened there. we're two days out now from

the first and only vice-presidential debate between joe biden and paul ryan. it will take place in kentucky. democrats counting on a strong performance from the vice president who has been hold up for days studying in his hometown of wilmington, delaware. the vice president is receiving counsel from obama campaign senior adviser david axelrod and has done two mock debates. vice president biden also reportedly been reading "young guns," remember that? a book co-written by paul ryan. congressman ryan is in florida this morning where he's lined up for a full day of debate prep. yesterday the republican vice-presidential nominee said he is ready for vice president biden to come out on fire. >> i really think that because they had such a bad debate that joe is just going to come flying at us, and it seems pretty clear that their new strategy is basically to basically just call us liars, to descend down into a

mud pit and hopefully with enough mudslinging back and forth and distortion people get demoralized and they can win by default, sort of a choice of a lesser two of evils." >> both will be seated during thursday's debate. now to business. the imf is lowering the forecast for global economic growth calling the risk of a worldwide slowdown alarmingly high. finance officials expect growth to stall in nearly every major country over the next few years. let's go now to jeff cutmore with more on this story. good morning. >> hey, good morning to you. this is the bleakest assessment from the imf since 2009 and a special word reserve for europe and the united states. in europe's case, it was a question of get your act togetherguys. for the united states, you got to deal with the fiscal cliff, the imf saying that combination of tax hikes and spending cuts could lock 4% of gdp growth in

2013. a message from our friends at the imf. back to you. >> also, i want to ask you about this story. "the wall street journal" reporting this morning, goldman sachsm turning their back on president obama. is this a trend an wall street this time around? >> this is a fascinating story. this is a real about turn. apparently two-thirds of -- or possibly three quarters even of goldman sachs employees were supporting financially president obama going into that campaign where he was initially elected. this time around, it appears that 70% are putting their money behind mitt romney. i think it's the continual presentation of attacks on bankers, on the financial sector, the blame being attached to them for the global financial crisis. i think people on wall street and in the city of london for that matter are frankly just had

enough of hearing this, the blame game. they're putting their money where their mouth is. and that's mitt romney right now. back to you. >> yeah, the numbers last time around 2008, employees of goldman sachs gave more than a million dollars to mr. obama. this time around, $136,000. jeff cutmore in london, thanks so much. still ahead, ichiro doing some acrobatics, dancing around the catcher to score last night in a play-off game the orioles had to have. highlights from that one-run game ahead in sports. plus, jon stewart tackles the conspiracy theory surrounding friday's employment numbers. that clip and a check on weather when "way too early" comes back. >> i do not view it as a recognition of my own accomplishments, but rather as an affirmation of american

leadership on behalf of aspirations held by people in all nations. [ man ] ring ring... progresso

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that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. 5:43. look at a live picture of new york city from the top of our building looking south. let's get a check of our weather from bill karins. >> looks like the heater staying on this morning. many areas still have that big chill going on. don't expect a lot of sunshine on the east coast. a storm just off the coast. most of the rain is off shore. there are sprinkles and drizzle from new jersey to philadelphia and washington, d.c. just very light rain. but the big story will be the cool temperatures that will continue all day to day with the clouds. i don't expect a lot of airport problems. we'll see on and off showers. temperatures in the 50s for highs in new england today. that's it. the leaves are getting at the peak, too. down along the mid-atlantic,

same for you. the opposite of this is we've really recovered from all of the cold air especially down there in texas and through the deep south. you'll have beautiful weather today. warm air down through missouri. trying to push into the ohio valley. but another big storm up here in the northern plains into canada is sending another shot of cold air into the central u.s. and eventually that will move across the country. look at the wind chills this morning. we're in the 20s in the northern plains. and that cold air is heading for areas like chicago, milwaukee, des moines and kansas city as we go throughout the day to day. the forecast today, cloudy on the east coast. pretty dry. a few showers there around chicago. but again, another shot of cold air, willie. you know, we're starting to build these up one after another. it's all leading towards winter. >> it was chili coming out this morning. in temperatures of sports, major league playoffs. yankees hoping to leave baltimore with a 2-0 series lead over the orioles in the alds. scoreless in the first inning. ichiro on first for robinson cano. he lines one to right field

corner. extra bases. ichiro hustling all the way around. going to try to score. looks like he's going to be out by ten feet. watch the move here. dances once, dances twice and gets that right hand in. he was never tagged by the catcher. so good call by the home plate umpirement replay shows the tag never makes it there. yankees take a 1-0 early lead. andy pettitte trying to get out of trouble with bases loaded in the third. chris davis lines a sing toll right. two runs come in to score. orioles take the lead 2-1. same score now in the sixth. mark reynolds grounds a single. that brings another run home. 3-1, orioles. pettitte gave up seven hits, three earned runs in seven innings of work. last chance for the yankees in the ninth. the game is 3-2. a-rod at the plate. he's the tying run. jim johnson gets a-rod swinging to end the game. the orioles win 3-2. that series now tied at one. that is the first play-off win for the orioles in 15 years. the series now moves to the

bronx for the final three game. cardinals trying to avoid going down two games to none at home with the nats. 7-3 when carlos beltran hammers one off the facade, third deck. he's not done. eighth inning, beltran with a moon shot. this one off the scaffolding in left center. cardinals win 12-4. beltran is second all time for multihome runs. reds at home going for the sweep of the giants. that's at 5:37 eastern. tigers can also sweep the as when they go to oakland tonight. tomorrow, a pair of series tie, nats host the cards and orioles in the bronx. the new york jets coming off a 34-0 shutout loss at home to the 49ers had the bad misfortune of meeting the undefeated

houston texans last night. first quarter, jets offense showing signs of life. mark sanchez throws one right over the defender to jeff cumberland. that is a 27-yard touchdown. the game is tied at seven there. texans answer. arian foster, big night. 14-7 sexians there. jets go on an 80-yard drive with the half wibding down. second and five from the 12, sanchez's pass tipped by j.j. wat. did he that all night. brice mccain gets some blockers. he's going 86 yards all the way to the 9 yard line. texans kick a field goal to go up 17-7 at the half. third quarter, texans kicking off after a field goal made it 20-7. joe mcknight finds a crease and gets the jets back in the game with special teams. 100 yards for the score. his second career kickoff return for a touchdown. jets within six points. two minutes left in the game now. jets still down six. a chance to drive, chance to be a hero.

sanchez throws high and out tide to cumberland. jackson gets it off the tip for the pick. that seals it. the texans beat the jets 23-17. another ugly performance for sanchez finishing below 50% passing for the fourth consecutive game. the lines for the game, 44% completion rate, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. on sunday, kansas city chiefs fans hit a low when they cheered as their own quarterback matt cassell lay motionless after suffering a head injury. sunday's game against the ravens. the chiefs fans who were frustrated with cassell's play voice their approval with cheers as cassell remained on his back for several minutes before leaving and giving way to fan favorite backup brady quinn. yesterday chief's offensive lineman eric winston ripped into his own fans for cheering the injury to his quarterback. >> when you cheer somebody getting knocked out, i don't care who it is and it just so happened to be matt cassell,

it's sickening. it's 100% sickening. and i've never, ever -- i've been with some rough times on some rough teams. i've never been more embarrassed in my life to play football than in that moment right there. >> chiefs head coach romeo crow mel offered a bit of a defense yesterday saying the cheering didn't come from most of the crowd. a small group, he believes. and believes kansas city fans are good fans. coming up at the top of the hour on "morning joe," mitt romney delivers a foreign policy speech at vmi. critics saying it fell a bit short on detail. we'll talk with the president on the council of foreign relations in just a minute. and we'll huddle around the water cooler where big bird remains center stage in this presidential campaign thanks to president obama's campaign. we'll show you their new ad when we come back.

we told you after being down almost 20 pins with women just a month ago, mitt romney has effectively closed the gender gap according to one poll. romney stands even with the president among female voters in the latest pugh survey. should romney end up getting more of the female vote than the president does in the general, he'd be the first republican to do that in 24 years. want to sound smart today, tell your friends the last republican

presidential candidate to win the female vote, george h.w. bush. they favored him over michael dukakis by a single percentage point that day. the number of female voters xeeted every male voter in every presidential election since 1964. all right, let's huddle up around the water cooler to take a crack at the conspiracy theories that were around after the release of the jobs report. >> folks, this .3% drop in the unemployment rate seems just a little too barely better to be true. >> maybe it's a coincidence. the month before the election we have a number that comes out .1 below when the president took office. >> i'm going to go with jack welch on this one. >> how convenient that the rate drops below 8% for the first time in 43 months, five weeks before an election. >> right back to where it was

january 2009. >> folks? this is more than a quinhe coul incidence. >> what would explain why after unemployment has been steadily declining for the last year that now suddenly right before the election it declines a little more. please! i think we know what's going on here. >> what are people insinuating here? that the books are cooked? >> a lot of people are saying that government is cooking the books here. >> these guys are saying they feel like they cooked the books. >> look, i got to say if you're cooking the books, 7.8% unemployment, get the. [ beep ] recipe. if you're cooking, make something nice for people. hey, unemployment's 2.6%. everybody, we're going to eat!

>> ever since mitt romney called out big bird by name at last week's presidential debate, president obama's campaign has been having a lot of fun with it. at a san francisco fund-raiser last night, president obama himself once again drew attention to mr. romney's plan to cut government funding for pbs. >> for all you moms and kids out there, you should have confidence that finally somebody is cracking down on big bird. elmo has been seen in a white suburban. he's driving for the border. oscar is hiding out in his trash can. we're cracking down on them. governor romney's plan is to let wall street run wild again but he's going to bring the hammer down on sesame street. >> the obama campaign now featuring big bird in a new tv ad out this morning. this is from the obama campaign.

>> i'm barack obama, i approve this message. >> bernie madoff, ken lay, dennis kozlowski, criminals, gluttons of greed and the evil genius who towered over them? one man has guts to speak his name. >> big bird. >> big bird. >> it's me, big bird. >> big, yellow, a menace to our economy. mitt romney knows it's not wall street you have to worry about, it's sesame street. >> i'm going to stop the subsidy to pbs. >> mitt romney, taking on our enemies no matter where they nest. >> that actually was from the obama campaign. that was not stewart or colbert. still coming up, why you're awake? "morning joe" is moments away. [ male announcer ] there are only so many foods

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like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. john tower, let's do three e-mails to day. three e-mails. how about that? i tied you into it now. >> that sounds like a great idea. cat writes, nightmare woke me up. willie was a stunt double. don't want to know what was the stunt. >>